Double or Nothing

So by now I'm pretty sure you've all realized I like statistics. I like manipulating numbers. They bring me a sense of calm.

So I crunched the SART data for my clinic (again). Our Doc says that for our case in particular he thinks we have somewhere between a 50-60% chance of success on our first cycle.

And then I looked at the data for multiples. And my heart skipped a beat. My clinic has a slightly (every so slightly) higher than average rate of twins. Luckily their rate for HOM is lower than the national average.

I just can't shake this feeling that my body is going to offer me double or nothing.

I'm still obese. I'm down 20 pounds (YAY) but in an ideal world I'd probably still be 80 pounds lighter than I am right now. And I know that the risk is VERY real with a twin pregnancy.

So here we go. Numbers:

My clinic

Year	Live Birth	Twins	Triplets
2012	36.5%	32.5%	1.8%
2011	32.0%	30.7%	2.3%
2010	37.0%	32.5%	0.0%
2009	45.5%	35.8%	1.1%
2008	48.2%	32.9%	1.0%
5 year average	39.8%	32.9%	1.2%

National Average

Year	Live Birth	Twins	Triplets
2012	40.7%	29.5%	1.1%
2011	40.1%	30.8%	1.2%
2010	41.7%	32.4%	1.5%
2009	41.4%	32.9%	1.6%
2008	44.4%	33.3%	1.9%
5 year average	41.7%	31.8%	1.5%

By the numbers I've got a 40% chance of getting pregnant. By my doctor I've got a 50/50 shot at getting pregnant.

And then IF I'm pregnant, I've got damn near a 33% chance of having two. My RE is strongly encouraging transferring two embryos. I'm going to take his advice. But a 1 in 3 chance of having twins is absolutely terrifying.

I spend entirely too much time lurking on the Multiples boards online. I spend entirely too much time calculating out not only my EDD (estimated due date) for this potential pregnancy, but what milestones I need to hit- Viability Day, making it past the "micro-preemie" cutoff (28 weeksish) and my "twins are done cooking date" (usually doctors want a twin pregnancy to last at least 35 weeks).

I've looked up the statistic for what % of twin moms delver by X weeks, and I find quite a bit of comfort knowing when my potential future fetuses could arrive.

I'm not sure if I'm crazy or if I'm optimistic, but I'm ready to tackle this beast head on and finally escape TTC land. I'm ready for the Fertility Boat to come pick me up. It's my time for the golden ticket. I'm ready to cross over to the other side.

I've been moderating the May 2015 birth club board for the past month, and it has been amazing how they've welcomed this infertile with open arms until they can elect their own mod. I can't wait to have that experience with MY OWN BMB.